Symonds is out, McDonald is in, and Brett Lee gets another chance at glory on English soil. Frankly, I think the selectors have done alright. I am surprised they went with Ronnie (McDonald) over Roy (Symonds), but I think they made the right decision. As for the rest, it’s all fairly predictable stuff. Only one specialist spinner is in the squad (Hauritz), but that’s not going to be a problem. If Cardiff is a turning pitch, then guys like Clarke, Katich, and North are all wicket takers who can combine to fill the extra spinner position.
As for the fast bowling “pack”, Johnson and Siddle are automatic selections, which leaves Lee, Clark, and Hilfenhaus fighting for the extra 1 or 2 spots.
Here’s the squad: Read the rest of this entry »
26 Mar, 2009
Posted by: TheAshesBlog.com In: Stats
I’ve done a stats analysis before, at the start of the last series, so I thought I’d do one again for the 2009 Ashes.
I wanted to compare player averages to see which side was statistically more likely to win. I could just add up the batting averages for the eleven players in each side, but that doesn’t take into account the quality of the bowling of the other side. So what I’ve done is add up the batting averages for each team, and then add to that total the bowling averages for the opposition, to give me a total team score (ie. add up the batting averages for England’s eleven batsmen, and then add to that total the combined bowling average for Australia’s five bowlers). So if a side has a very good, and therefore low, bowling average then they won’t be adding too many runs to the oppositions total batting average, so it seems to me like a fair comparison. When I do this, I get the following result:
Australia: 594
England: 510
This would suggest a comfortable Australia win, with the Aussies ahead in both the batting and bowling averages.
You can also have a bit of fun with this concept. For example, a team of eleven Simon Katichs would defeat a standard England XI with Strauss, Pietersen, Flintoff and Co. Don’t believe me? I’ll show you how you can try it out for yourself, using any combination of players on both sides. Read the rest of this entry »
