The Ashes Blog

It’s locked at 1-1. Match results have been unpredictable, with each side putting in strong and poor performances. Freddy Flintoff is playing his last Test for England, and Ricky Ponting considers this the biggest Test of his career. Both sides have everything to play for.

So, who will win the 2009 Ashes series?

I think it will be Australia. They have the momentum and the form, and I can’t see England turning things around so dramatically from the fourth Test debacle. For England to win they’ll need a huge individual performance from someone like Strauss, Flintoff, or Anderson. That’s a possibility, but I think overall Australia has the stronger team at present.

What do you think?  Please leave a comment below, as I’d love to see what you think.

I thought I’d put up a couple of different angles on how things are shaping for The Ashes 2009. First up is a review from my father-in-law, a keen English cricket fan now living in Brisbane, Australia:

I think it will be close. Neither team looks a dominant force to me, though both are capable of playing winning cricket. If the wickets favour spin, I think England will probably win, though I rate Michael Clarke and Katich as good spinners, probably better than Hauritz. But it is unlikely that more than a couple of the pitches will help spinners much.

The weather is very good at the moment. It was hot for Wimbledon. But English weather ….

Here are my thoughts as an Australian fan:
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I know they’ve copped a lot of flak (“See ya, sheilas” – The Sun newspaper), but I think Australia’s early exit from the Twenty20 World Cup will be a blessing in disguise. They can now focus everything they have on their Ashes defense, rest up a little, and become well accustomed to playing under England conditions. This was on my mind as soon as I heard we were knocked out by losing to the West Indies and Sri Lanka, and Shane Warne shares this view:

“Although Australia will still be hurting, this could be a blessing in disguise for the Ashes. They will be able to have a short break to get this out of their systems and then tick along with their practice out of the spotlight before the warm-ups. They have one focus now, no distractions before July 8 in Cardiff.”
- Shane Warne in The Times

Match time is good, but Twenty20 cricket is so different to Test match cricket that I think a good amount of time between games is a good thing. And by the time we get to Cardiff on July 8, I think they’ll be hungry for some international cricket success. If Australia goes on to win the Ashes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the English press do a 180 degree turn and pronounce that England lost because they stayed in the World Cup for too long.

What do you think? Will Australia’s early exit from the World Cup be to their advantage when they get to the Ashes Tests?

After watching Australia lose to South Africa, former England players are confident of seeing England once again win The Ashes on home soil.

“The key for England is to be brave, seize the moment, and relish the challenge of playing against Australia.
Unfortunately, we have to win the Ashes and not to just draw to regain them but I’m an optimist so I think we will do it. Warne and McGrath created a huge amount of pressure but their retirements have made Australia easier to beat.”
- Robin Smith

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The bookies have got Australia as favourites to win The Ashes in 2009, but that could easily slide over the next few months if they continue to underperform.

At the moment Australia is $1.77 to win the 2009 series, England is $3, the draw $5.50.

I’d have it a lot closer than that, with Australia at $2.00, England at $2.00, and $4.00 for a draw. Yep, it could be that close.

According to the great Sir Beefy, England will comfortably win The Ashes next year, largely because they (allegedly) have a better bowling line-up.

“They have Brett Lee. But after that, there’s nothing; there’s no spinner and no Glenn McGrath.”
“There’s no threat. If the (English) bowlers stay fit I think we will win the series.”
- Ian Botham

I gotta disagree. At this stage I’m predicting a really, really tight series, and the result could go either way.

England’s bowling lineup for the Ashes Test series in 2009 will look something like this:
Flintoff / Harmison / Broad / Sidebottom / Panesar

Australia’s bowling lineup for the Ashes could look like this:
Lee / Tait / Clark / Johnson … and a spinner, which could be Krejza, White, Casson, or Symonds.

When you compare bowling averages, there’s not a lot between them, although I’d have to say that the England bowling squad will probably perform better on the English pitches than the Aussies will. But for Ian Botham to come out and declare England a near-certainty this far out from the First Test on July 9 2009, is a bit ridiculous.

Let’s wait and see how both sides perform over the next 8 months, and then we’ll have a better idea.

Australia: 419
England: 161
Australia wins by an innings and 99 runs

It was yet another comfortable win for the Australians, with all of the bowlers contributing in another standout performance. Brett Lee’s 4 wickets were just reward for the way he bowled … he obviously had plenty of Weet-Bix for breakfast. Stuart Clark also bowled beautifully, and together with Lee’s bag of 4, there weren’t too many left for Messrs Warne and McGrath.

For the English, Chris Read did really well behind the stumps, taking 6 catches, and making 26no with the bat. It was to be expected, after all, for once again England has brought a capable player into the side too late for him to have any positive impact on the series.

The Australian and English media have been calling for Kevin Pietersen’s elevation to number 4, and finally the England management gave in, though one wonders whether the timing was appropriate. England were struggling at 2 for 48 when ‘The Ego’ surprisingly came out to bat one spot higher than he has all summer. The experiment was allegedly KP’s suggestion, though it didn’t work out with the former South African adding just 1 run to the England total before being bowled by a delicious Stuart Clark off cutter.

Aside from that the only other real talking point was the poor umpiring from Rudi Koertzen, who seemed intent on not giving any LBW decisions for the entire match. I remember when I did a season as a professional umpire. In one game I was far too generous with my LBW dismissals, raising the finger for just about anything. The day after the game I received a call from the cricket association’s umpiring chief, who, in a very kind way, reminded me that I should be a little more judicious in my decision making. I’d reckon Rudi Koertzen might be receiving a similar phone call.

So now we head off to Sydney for the fifth Test. The Australians are red hot favourites to win the final Test in the harbour city, with England looking about as demoralised as they have all tour. We all scoffed at Glenn McGrath’s predictions that Australia would win 5-0, and now he gets the chance to prove us all wrong in his final Test.

Two months ago we were all being told that Australia would once again lose an Ashes Test series because they are too old.

“More relevantly, [Australia] is also home to some of the oldest things on earth, including rocks, fossils, Justin Langer, Glenn McGrath and the aforementioned Warne.

This is the fact that England must cling to as they set about attempting to retain the Ashes. Their youthful vitality (none of England’s top six have ever played a test in Australia) must expose the Australian team as an aging, creaking machine in urgent need of a new engine.”
- Simon Hughes

That’s not looking too wise now … although Simon Hughes did go on to say that he predicted an Australian victory by 3 Tests to 1. However, others were far more optimistic of England’s chances:

“One experienced reporter told me that in all his years of covering England tours, he has never been more convinced that they will succeed.”
- Simon Briggs

Even Aussie great Dennis Lillee was concerned about Australia’s old boys:

“It’s worrying how Australia, after being outplayed in England, are going to turn things around with a decidedly older team.”
- Dennis Lillee

Now we are being told that Australia won because they are too old:

“We were slightly short of experience. Australia were almost ten years a man older than our side.”
- David Collier, the chief executive of the England and Wales Cricket Board

Fascinating. I think Australia’s vast years of experience did help them to win this series. The English players were terribly nervous, as exemplified by Harmison’s first delivery at the Gabba. The Australians, in contrast, were ready to play. They might have ageing bodies, but they also have ageing minds, and that made all the difference.

“England are going to be badly underdone in Brisbane. They don’t look like they’re taking the build-up too seriously. It’ll be Australia 4-0. I might give England a dead rubber.”
- Steve Rixon

England took a day out from training yesterday to spend some time in the gym and then went to the U2 concert in Sydney. Steve Rixon thought this was a bad day given their woeful performance in Canberra, but Andrew Strauss thought it might help:

“The more practice you can get before the first Test, the better it’s going to be obviously. But it’s not the be-all and end-all. The most important thing is that you’re focused mentally going into that first Test match.”

Even Steve Waugh came out in support of the Englishmen, saying that team bonding is an important thing at the start of a long tour, and I’d have to agree. The guys know how to play cricket – what they really need is the right frame of mind, and the confidence to go out there and play their best.

There are now less than 3 weeks to go until B-Day (Brisbane Day) – November 23. The day when the focus of the world will turn once again to the Gabba. Ok, well not quite the focus of the entire world, but let’s just conveniently ignore the Americans for once. They won’t like being ignored, but we will.

Anyway, with so much talk about the Ashes there are going to be a few bold souls making predictions about a final result. Here are a few I’ve found so far:

The Australians
Mark Waugh: Australia 4-1
Glenn McGrath: Australia 5-0
Darren Lehmann: Australia

The English
Dominic Cork: England
England fans: 47.3% say Australia …. 28.6% say England

I predicted an England victory in 2005 almost 12 months before it all happened. Now I’m going to try again …

Australia will win 3-1.

However, that result could so easily be reversed. An injury to one or two of Australia’s core players might give it to England. If Flintoff can get his brilliance back, if Mahmood can acclimatise to the Australian conditions, and if the top order can consistently put a big partnership together, then England might have enough in the tank to repeat the heroics of 2005. It’s going to be close.