07 Jul, 2009
The Ashes 2009: a Pom and a convict give their view
Posted by: TheAshesBlog.com In: Predictions| Tests ()
I thought I’d put up a couple of different angles on how things are shaping for The Ashes 2009. First up is a review from my father-in-law, a keen English cricket fan now living in Brisbane, Australia:
I think it will be close. Neither team looks a dominant force to me, though both are capable of playing winning cricket. If the wickets favour spin, I think England will probably win, though I rate Michael Clarke and Katich as good spinners, probably better than Hauritz. But it is unlikely that more than a couple of the pitches will help spinners much.
Lee was the best bowler on show from either side in that game at Worcester. He bowled very well indeed. But I understand that he will be out for the first two tests and anyway his record in Tests in England is rather poor. Harmison was the next best and looked pretty dangerous. Johnson was fairly ordinary, though I don’t doubt he will come good.
Both sides seem to have strong tail end batting, and I rather suspect that we will see the top order of both teams collapsing at times, only to be saved by numbers 7, 8, 9 and whoever. I suspect that England will bat Prior at 6 and Flintoff at 7, with Broad (an average of over 30 in Tests) at 8. Flintoff scored 93 for his county a week or so ago, so has some batting form behind him.
With regard to Hughes, he obviously is going to be roughed up with short balls and he might find it hard going early, but I think he is too good to fail often or fail for very long.
I understand that McGrath is forecasting a 5-0 Australian whitewash. But there, he usually does. He got it right last time in Australia, but very wrong in 2005. I can’t see either side winning by that kind of margin.
The weather is very good at the moment. It was hot for Wimbledon. But English weather ….
Here are my thoughts as an Australian fan:
I also think it will be very close, though I think Australia will retain the Ashes. Australia’s strength is in its batting (see England v Australia: a comparison of Test averages), and England’s strength is its bowling, but I think the Aussie batsmen will come out on top more often than not.
Brett Lee missing at least the first Test, and probably more, is a huge blow for Australia. He was in great form, with the potential to win Test matches. If he’s only out for 1 or 2 Tests, I think Australia will do ok. But remember 2005: Glenn McGrath was only out for 2 Tests, but it was those 2 Tests that England won, and that was ultimately enough for them to win the series.
I agree with my father-in-law when he says that both sides will have a few batting collapses, and rely on their lower order to score runs. Interestingly both sides are playing bowlers who can score useful runs, and this could prove a significant issue. It will make it tough on the bowlers, who won’t be able to slacken off once they’ve taken six or seven wickets, as there’s still the potential for plenty of runs to be scored.
Phillip Hughes is a terrific player, and I think he’ll come through ok. Yes, he may falter occasionally, but as he showed us in South Africa, the guy knows how to score a good hundred. I’m expecting him to score at least one century this series. Ravi Bopara will also have some great innings, but I also expect him to get quite a few low scores (under 20). For England I’m going to tip Andrew Strauss to be their leading runscorer, and for the Aussies I’m going to go with Michael Clarke.
Reverse swing will play a big part in the Ashes of ‘09. The Australian bowlers may not be quite as experienced as the English when it comes to reverse swing, but I think Troy Cooley will have them ready. Bret Lee has obviously got it, and I think Peter Siddle could be a bit of a surprise packet in that department as well.
What about injuries? Australia has already lost Brett Lee for a Test or two, but what about England? Can they get through unscathed, given Pietersen’s and Flintoff’s recent history? I doubt it. England will suffer as a result of injuries to important players, it’s just a matter of when that happens.
What do you think? Whether you’re in the Barmy Army or an Aussie fanatic, how do you see this series and the players shaping up for the Ashes 2009?
